Chapter 13: Europe
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13.4. Synthesis
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13.4.4. Regional Issues
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Chapter 13.4.4.3: Sustainable and Equity
Sustainable development (understood as relaying natural capital to future generations in a nondepleted state) has been in jeopardy in Europe from several existing pressures, mostly nonclimatic (e.g., land-use change, environmental pollution, atmospheric deposition). Yet climate change adds an important element to the threat to the environment. Sea-level rise threatens coastal habitats with a squeeze between hard defenses and rising water levels. Most (50–90%) of the alpine glaciers could disappear by the end of the 21st century, and there may be local extinctions of species that require cold habitats for their survival (e.g., subarctic and montane species). Many ecosystems will respond to climate change via migration and change; a policy challenge is how to manage these changes.
Finally, climate change impacts will be differently distributed among different regions, generations, age classes, income groups, occupations, and genders. This has important equity implications, although these implications have not been investigated in detail. For example, elderly and sick people suffer more in heat waves. There is greater vulnerability, in general, in southern than in northern Europe. Mediterranean Europe and mountain farmers are likely to be worse off in a warmer world. This presents a challenge to existing regional policies within the EU that are aimed at leveling up less-developed areas (peripheral Europe versus core Europe). In general, the more marginal and less wealthy areas will be less able to adapt, so climate change without appropriate policies of response may lead to greater inequity.
Possible climate change impacts on key resources are sufficient to warrant early consideration by European policymakers to ensure sustainable development. In general, the adaptation potential of socioeconomic systems in much of Europe is high because of economic conditions, a stable population with the capacity to move within the region, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems.
