Chapter 8: Transport
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8.2 New developments in emission trends and drivers
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8.2.2 Drivers
Social and cultural factors. Population growth and changes in demographics are major drivers for increased transport demand. Economic structural change, particularly in non-OECD countries, can lead to increased specialization of jobs and a more gender-diversified workforce, which can result in more and longer commutes (McQuaid and Chen, 2012). At the household level, once a motorized vehicle becomes affordable, even in relatively poor households, then it becomes a major item of expenditure; however, ownership has still proven to be increasingly popular with each new generation (Giuliano and Dargay, 2006; Lescaroux, 2010; Zhu et al., 2012). Thus, there is a high growth rate in ownership of motorized two-wheel vehicles and LDVs evident in developing countries, resulting in increasing safety risks for pedestrians and non-motorized modes (Nantulya and Reich 2002; Pendakur, 2011). The development of large shopping centres and malls usually located outside the city centre allows many products to be purchased by a consumer following a single journey but the travel distance to these large shopping complexes has tended to increase (Weltevreden, 2007). For freight transport, economic globalization has increased the volume and distance of movement of goods and materials (Henstra et al., 2007).
Modal choice can be driven by social factors that are above and beyond the usual time, cost, and price drivers. For example, some urban dwellers avoid using mass transit or walking due to safety and security issues. However, there is evidence that over the past decade younger people in some OECD cities are choosing walking, cycling, and mass transit over LDVs (Parkany et al., 2004; Newman and Kenworthy, 2011b; Delbosc and Currie, 2013; Kuhnimhof et al., 2013) although this trend could change as people age (Goodwin and van Dender, 2013).
Another example is that in some societies, owning and driving a LDV can provide a symbolic function of status and a basis for sociability and networking through various sign-values such as speed, safety, success, career achievement, freedom, masculinity, and emancipation of women (Mokhtarian and Salomon, 2001; Steg, 2005; Bamberg et al., 2011; Carrabine and Longhurst, 2002; Miller, 2001; Sheller, 2004; Urry, 2007). In such cases, the feeling of power and superiority associated with owning and using a LDV may influence driver behaviour, for example, speeding without a concern for safety, or without a concern about fuel consumption, noise, or emissions (Brozović and Ando, 2009; Tiwari and Jain, 2012). The possible effects on travel patterns from declining incomes are unclear.
Box 8.1 Transport and sustainable development in developing countries
Passenger and freight mobility are projected to double in developing countries by 2050 (IEA, 2012e). This increase will improve access to markets, jobs, education, healthcare and other services by providing opportunities to reduce poverty and increase equity (Africa Union, 2009; Vasconcellos, 2011; United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2012). Well-designed and well-managed transport infrastructure can also be vital for supporting trade and competitiveness (United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2012). Driven by urbanization, a rapid transition from slow non-motorized transport modes to faster modes using 2- or 3- wheelers, LDVs, buses, and light rail is expected to continue (Schäfer et al., 2009; Kumar, 2011). In rural areas of Africa and South Asia, the development of all-season, high-quality roads is becoming a high priority (Africa Union, 2009; Arndt et al., 2012). In many megacities, slum area development in peri-urban fringes confines the urban poor to a choice between low paying jobs near home or long commuting times for marginally higher wages (Burdett and Sudjic, 2010). The poor have limited options to change living locations and can afford few motorized trips, so they predominantly walk, which disproportionally burdens women and children (Anand and Tiwari, 2006; Pendakur, 2011). The urban poor in OECD cities have similar issues (Glaeser, 2011). Reducing vulnerability to climate change requires integrating the mobility needs of the poor into planning that can help realize economic and social develdevelopmentctives (Amekudzi et al., 2011; Bowen et al., 2012).
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