2.1 Observed Changes, Impacts and Attribution
2.1.2 Observed Climate System Changes and Impacts to Date
Economic impacts attributable to climate change are increasingly affecting peoples' livelihoods and are causing economic and societal impacts across national boundaries (high confidence). Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, with regional effects to agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism, and through outdoor labour productivity (high confidence) with some exceptions of positive impacts in regions with low energy demand and comparative advantages in agricultural markets and tourism (high confidence). Individual livelihoods have been affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts on human health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, with adverse effects on gender and social equity (high confidence). Tropical cyclones have reduced economic growth in the short-term (high confidence). Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-caused climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence). Wildfires in many regions have affected built assets, economic activity, and health (medium to high confidence). In cities and settlements, climate impacts to key infrastructure are leading to losses and damages across water and food systems, and affect economic activity, with impacts extending beyond the area directly impacted by the climate hazard (high confidence).
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Across sectors and regions, the most vulnerable people and systems have been disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change (high confidence). LDCs and SIDS who have much lower per capita emissions (1.7 tCO2-eq, 4.6 tCO2-eq, respectively) than the global average (6.9 tCO2-eq) excluding CO2- LULUCF, also have high vulnerability to climatic hazards, with global hotspots of high human vulnerability observed in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia, Central and South America, SIDS and the Arctic (high confidence). Regions and people with considerable development constraints have high vulnerability to climatic hazards (high confidence). Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., smallholder farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities) (high confidence). Vulnerability at different spatial levels is exacerbated by inequity and marginalisation linked to gender, ethnicity, low income or combinations thereof (high confidence), especially for many Indigenous Peoples and local communities (high confidence). Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (high confidence). Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability (high confidence). In the Arctic and in some high mountain regions, negative impacts of cryosphere change have been especially felt among Indigenous Peoples (high confidence). Human and ecosystem vulnerability are interdependent (high confidence). Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change differs substantially among and within regions (very high confidence), driven by patterns of intersecting socio-economic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalisation, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance (high confidence).
2.2 Responses Undertaken to Date
2.2.1 Global Policy Setting
Since AR5, rising public awareness and an increasing diversity of actors, have overall helped accelerate political commitment and global efforts to address climate change (medium confidence). Mass social movements have emerged as catalysing agents in some regions, often building on prior movements including Indigenous Peoples-led movements, youth movements, human rights movements, gender activism, and climate litigation, which is raising awareness and, in some cases, has influenced the outcome and ambition of climate governance (medium confidence). Engaging Indigenous Peoples and local communities using just-transition and rights-based decision-making approaches, implemented through collective and participatory decisionmaking processes has enabled deeper ambition and accelerated action in different ways, and at all scales, depending on national circumstances (medium confidence). The media helps shape the public discourse about climate change. This can usefully build public support to accelerate climate action (medium evidence, high agreement). In some instances, public discourses of media and organised counter movements have impeded climate action, exacerbating helplessness and disinformation and fuelling polarisation, with negative implications for climate action (medium confidence).
2.3 Current Mitigation and Adaptation Actions and Policies are not Sufficient
2.3.1 The Gap Between Mitigation Policies, Pledges and Pathways that Limit Warming to 1.5 or Below 2°C
All mitigation strategies face implementation challenges, including technology risks, scaling, and costs (high confidence). Almost all mitigation options also face institutional barriers that need to be addressed to enable their application at scale (medium confidence). Current development pathways may create behavioural, spatial, economic and social barriers to accelerated mitigation at all scales (high confidence). Choices made by policymakers, citizens, the private sector and other stakeholders influence societies’ development pathways (high confidence). Structural factors of national circumstances and capabilities (e.g., economic and natural endowments, political systems and cultural factors and gender considerations) affect the breadth and depth of climate governance (medium confidence). The extent to which civil society actors, political actors, businesses, youth, labour, media, Indigenous Peoples, and local communities are engaged influences political support for climate change mitigation and eventual policy outcomes (medium confidence).
