Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

Section 3: Scenario Driving Forces

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3.3. Economic and Social Development

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3.3.1. Introduction

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UN Human Development Index

The UN has tried to address the shortcomings of GDP by developing The Human Development Index (UNDP, 1997). This index, produced since 1990, combines three factors to measure overall development:

• Income as measured by real GDP per capita at PPP to represent command over resources to enjoy a decent standard of living.
• Longevity as measured by life expectancy at birth.
• Educational attainment as measured by adult literacy and school emolment.

The UN has also developed other measures, such as the Gender-related Development Index (GDI) and the Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) to assess conditions such as gender equality.

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3.7. Policies

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3.7.2. Policy Areas

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3.7.2.1. Population and Social Welfare Policies

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Other policy measures are less direct, but also exert important influences on fertility rates. These include improvements in health care and female education, especially primary school education, which is a factor that correlates highly with fertility rates in young women (Bongaarts, 1994). Similarly, measures that improve gender equality reduce fertility rates as they encourage non-maternal roles and increase employment and empowerment opportunities for women. Their implementation is currentiy unrelated to concems about global warming, yet their effect on this environmental issue may be significant.