9.3 Social, environmental and economic impacts: Global and regional assessment
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9.3.1 Social and economic development
Globally, per capita incomes are positively correlated with per capita energy use and economic growth can be identifi ed as the most relevant factor behind increasing energy consumption in the last decades. However, there is no agreement on the direction of the causal relationship between energy use and increased macroeconomic output. [9.3.1.1]
As economic activity expands and diversifies, demands for more sophisticated and fl exible energy sources arise: from a sectoral perspective, countries at an early stage of development consume the largest part of total primary energy in the residential (and to a lesser extent agricultural) sector; in emerging economies the manufacturing sector dominates, while in fully industrialized countries services and transport account for steadily increasing shares (see Figure TS.9.1). [9.3.1.1]
Despite the close correlation between GDP and energy use, a wide variety of energy use patterns across countries prevails: some have achieved high levels of per capita incomes with relatively low energy consumption. Others remain rather poor despite elevated levels of energy use, in particular countries abundantly endowed with fossil fuel resources, in which energy is often heavily subsidized. One hypothesis suggests that economic growth can largely be decoupled from energy use by steady declines in energy intensity. Further, it is often asserted that developing economies and economies in transition can ‘leapfrog’, that is, limit their energy use by adopting modern, highly effi cient energy technologies. [9.3.1.1, Box 9.5]
Access to clean and reliable energy constitutes an important prerequisite for fundamental determinants of human development, such as health, education, gender equality and environmental safety. Using the HDI as a proxy indicator of development, countries that have achieved high HDI levels in general consume relatively large amounts of energy per capita and no country has achieved a high or even a medium HDI without signifi cant access to non-traditional energy supplies. A certain minimum amount of energy is required to guarantee an acceptable standard of living (e.g., 42 GJ per capita), after which raising energy consumption yields only marginal improvements in the quality of life. [9.3.1.2]
