TS.C Projected Impacts and Risks
Health and well-being
TS.C.6 Climate change will increase the number of deaths and the global burden of non-communicable and infectious diseases (high confidence). Over nine million climate-related deaths per year are projected by the end of the century, under a high emissions scenario and accounting for population growth, economic development and adaptation. Health risks will be differentiated by gender, age, income, social status and region (high confidence).
TS.C.6.1 Future global burdens of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions will depend on emissions and adaptation pathways and the efficacy of public health systems, interventions and sanitation (very high confidence). Projections under mid-range emissions scenarios show an additional 250,000 deaths per year by 2050 (compared to 1961–1990) due to malaria, heat, childhood undernutrition and diarrhoea (high confidence). Overall, more than half of this excess mortality is projected for Africa. Mortality and morbidity will continue to escalate as exposures become more frequent and intense, putting additional strain on health and economic systems (high confidence), reducing capacity to respond, particularly in resource- poor regions. Vulnerable groups include young children (<5 years old), the elderly (>65 years old), pregnant women, Indigenous Peoples, those with pre-existing diseases, physical labourers and those in low socioeconomic conditions (high confidence).
TS.C.11 Compound, cascading risks and transboundary risks give rise to new and unexpected types of risks (high confidence). They exacerbate existing stressors and constrain adaptation options (medium confidence). They are projected to become major threats for many areas, such as coastal cities (medium to high confidence). Some compound and cascading impacts occur locally, some spread across sectors and socioeconomic and natural systems, while others can be driven by events in other regions, for instance through trade and flows of commodities and goods through supply chain linkages (high confidence).
TS.C.11.9 Population groups in most vulnerable and exposed regions to compound and cascading risks have the most urgent need for improved adaptive capacity (high confidence). Regions characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation and wealth and gender inequalities, and governance challenges are among the most vulnerable regions and are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America (high confidence).
